Glavine Woes

Jeremy Heit at Mets Geek writes about the hard times that Tom Glavine is having right now:

Many Met fans are worried about Tom Glavine. With his recent struggles, they are worried he will not be the #2 starter the Mets need come playoff time. Using David Pinto’s Day-by-Day Database, we are able to look at the differences between Tom’s first two months, where he looks like an ace, and the last two months, where he has struggled mightly.

April and May- 11 games, 2.59 ERA, 73 IP, 58 hits allowed, 7.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9, 1.10 WHIP

June and July- 12 games, 5.45 ERA, 67.2 IP, 93 hits allowed, 4.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.73 HR/9, 1.76 WHIP
As you can see, Tom’s stats are down across the board.

His walk rate hasn’t fallen off that much, so it isn’t that much of a concern to me. I’m also not that concerned with the massive jump in his hit rate. I expect that to settle somewhere in between the ratios for his first two months (which is a little on the low side) and the last two months (which is outrageously high) because there is no way Tom gives up 93 hits in 67.2 innings again.

What does concern me is the K rate and HR rate. While I never expected Tom to strike out guys like he was early in the season, a 4.1 K/9 rate isn’t going to cut it either. Something around (maybe even a little below) 6 per nine innings would be acceptable. As for his HR rate, something about 1 per nine innings would be fine. But what worries about the drop in those two rates is that I feel like he’s not fooling as many hitters, evidenced by the fact that they are not striking out (meaning they put the ball in play) and they are hitting it for more power.

In the end, I think Tom will be fine, but seeing an older pitcher go through these types of struggles worries me and I think he will have to make an adjustment or two down to stretch to get back to ace form. I have no idea what those adjustments are, but I have faith Tom and Rick Peterson can figure them out