December 29, 2006

Zito's 2007 stats with Giants

Dan Szymborski at the Baseball Think Factory, writes about the deal between the Giants and Barry Zito. Also they give a projection for Zito next year:

When I see the "7-year, $126 million contract" I think that I'm looking at some NFL contract in which a team gives this amount to their QB but it consists of like $3 million a year, an $8 million signing bonus, and a $80 million roster bonus if the player's on the roster in 2050 or something that everyone knows will never come to pass. But this is a real money contract. For Barry Zito. A pitcher who, after his big K rate drop following 3 years with ERA+s of 174, 125, and 169 has put up 105, 116, 116 and that's with generally a really nice outfield defense behind him (though the Giants are much improved over the last few years in that department).

It'd be hard, but I could justify this if I were the Mets. The Mets, see, are a team with an actual future in which it's worth playing a nice payroll chunk out for a dependable, good, non-elite pitcher. The Giants, on the other hand, have no future. You can't pay Barry Zito $18 million a year if you have to pay retail for practically every single member of the team. Paying this much retail for nearly a decade of Barry Zito, for the Giants, is about as practical as paying $900 for a PlayStation 3 on eBay to give to Ariel Sharon for his birthday. Except in this case, with $126 million, I'd have enough to buy a PlayStation 3 for every person in baseball who has more brain activity than Brian Sabean, a category which includes, coincidentally, the aforementioned Israeli politician.

Did Jason Schmidt simply refuse to deal with the Giants or something? I'd give Schmidt 3-years, $60 million long before I would give Zito this contract. Look for the Giants to join the Yankees as the only team in baseball history to pay more than $2 million per win, and I'm not talking about the Giants spending $160 million anytime soon...

2007 ZiPS Projection - Barry Zito
14 11 34 34 216 196 96 25 96 165 4.00
Opt. (15%) 18 9 34 34 225 189 82 20 90 178 3.28
Pes. (15%) 9 12 28 28 175 172 95 26 87 128 4.89

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