October 12, 2007

Prorated Green Costs 5.5M So Why Not Keep Him

From Ed Ryan at Mets Fever (Network Member):

Jeff Sackman at Hardball Times makes a case for the Brewers to pickup the option on Geoff Jenkins. Jenkins is in a very similar situation to Shawn Green, both players are very similar and the same argument can apply to Green. Jenkins is two years younger and a much better defender but Green hits almost fifty points better.

Green has a 10m club option for this year with a 2m buy out, making the contract worth 8m to pickup. When the Mets acquired Green they received 6m in cash considerations from the Diamondbacks, with that split between the two 1/2 years ( 1m 1/2yr "06"- 2.5m "07"-2.5m "08") Green would only cost 5.5m. Contract info Cots contracts.

So the Mets for 5.5m could have a 35 y/o lefthanded hitting above average first baseman and a limited range outfielder. I agree that Green has limited range in the outfield but he is a smart player knowing how to properly position for certain hitters and not taking risks that result in extra bases. Additionally Green is insurance at first and can play there when a groundball pitcher is on the mound. Green hit .291 (.326 against righties/.406 in Sept.), 10 HRs, 46 RBIs and 11 SBs. I like Green's professionalism he never complained about losing his job to Milledge or switching between the outfield/firstbase and is a very low injury risk.

It will be hard to find anyone with comparative numbers that wont cost more. Adam Dunn will definitely cost 8-10m per year, he's 7yrs younger hit 30 more homers and 60 more RBIs but also strikeouts significantly more often (last year 165 to 62), batting average is almost 40 points lower ( .264- .291) and his fielding percentage is lower ( .974-.988). Dunn has a 13m club option, so if they decline he'll be looking for at least the difference from the 1/2 m buyout (12.5m).

Assuming that the Mets don't trade anyone their loaded with right handed outfielders ( Alou, Milledge, Beltran (sw), Gomez, Johnson) so anyone acquired would more then likely be lefthanded. Aside from Dunn that leaves Brad Wilkerson, Milton Bradley (switch), Corey Patterson, Trott Nixon, Fukudome and Kenny Lofton as the available free agent lefties. None of which seem like better options and at Green's pro-rated cost they would probably cost more along with getting longer contracts.

The question becomes will Shawn Green win two -three games for the Mets this year or subsequently cost them that many games for his poor outfielding when playing against righties.

I agreed 10m was just too expensive for a bench player or at best a platoon situation, but in reality we're paying at least 2m for the buyout and received 2.5 from Arizona for this year, so who will we get at a better price for 5.5m.

Since Jenkins reached plate appearance incentives, the buyout on his option—initially $500,000—is up to $1 million. Thus, it costs only $8 million to exercise the option. Based on last year's free agent market, some rough comps are MoisesAlou ($8.5 million) and Luis Gonzalez ($7.35 million), both of whom were considerably older (and greater injury risks) than Jenkins will be in 2008.Using the simple rule of thumb that each marginal win costs about $3 million on the free agent market, we should start with the question of whether Jenkins is likely to be worth three wins to the Crew.


Anonymous said...

i just dont know if i would want him back

Anonymous said...

you kidding me? bring him back if its only going to cost us 5.5 million

John Peterson said...

It's not the money that keeps the Mets from bringing him back. It's Milledge. He's blocking Milledge.

Also, he never complained about losing his job to Milledge because that never actually happened. He got way more playing time than he deserved. Only Paul Lo Duca complains about that.