January 02, 2007

Milledge's projection

Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus, writes about Lastings Milledge and how he projects to hit over the next five years:


Norfolk is an absolutely brutal hitting environment, and so the .277/.388/.440 line that Milledge posted there translates into a .300/.398/.492 equivalent line. That’s right: Norfolk is such a tough park that it’s actually harder to put up numbers there than in a major league park against major league competition. Milledge’s splits were .261/.385/.325 at home and .293/.391/.560 in road games.

Here’s what PECOTA sees for the next five seasons:
2007 - BA .284, OBP .356, SLG .457, VORP 24.5; MORP $11.2M
2008 - BA .287, OBP .361, SLG .467, VORP 27.6; MORP $13.1M
2009 - BA .288, OBP .365, SLG .472, VORP 30.0; MORP $15.0M
2010 - BA.290, OBP .371, SLG .480, VORP 33.2; MORP $17.2M
2011 - BA .287, OBP .368, SLG .477, VORP 30.6; MORP $17.5M

No comments: