February 23, 2007

Projecting The lineup

Michael Salfino at SNY, takes a stab at predicting the Mets 2007 lineup:

Leading off, PECOTA has Jose Reyes at .290/.335/.445 (batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage) with 14 homers and 61 steals. James has him pegged at .289/.333/.448 with 13 homers and 58 steals.

There's a big split on Paul Lo Duca in terms of at bats. Most catchers at Lo Duca's age and with his prior mileage start to fade physically, so PECOTA clocks him in with just 403 ABs. James looks only at the player and expects 516 at bats. I'd go with James here and agree that Lo Duca's slugging percentage will be within 100 points of his batting average. So, he better hit around .300 again or he's a problem.

Carlos Delgado is given just 439 at bats by PECOTA. James gives him 582. PECOTA gives him 27 homers, James 37. Delgado was the 10th best hitter in the NL on sliders (.845 OPS) last year. I don't know if those splits on various pitches correlate from year-to-year (probably not very well), but I love 'em.

David Wright is given 29 homers by both projections systems. That is viewed as miserly by many fantasy players. But I think it may well be too generous unless his second-half power outage and homer rate of 12.9 percent of flyballs were flukes. Both projection systems also forecast a plus-.300 average and slugging percentage in the mid-.500s.

To read the entire projection sheet, use the link in the header.

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