Over 20 Home Runs for Church In 2008?

Ray Flowers at The Roto Times puts up a case for Ryan Church's power and how he might just surprise us this year with his power numbers:

Do all those doubles that Church hit last season hint at latent HR power? Well, it has been generally accepted that hitters establish their own HR to flyball ratio, though the major-league average for hitters is generally around 11 or 12%. However, it also seems that players generally establish consistent levels over three years, so that if a player has a 15% rate in 2005-07, chances are fairly good hat he will, in the fourth year of 2008, closely approximate that rate. That's what makes Church's numbers the past three years a bit odd. In 2005-06, Church's HR/F rates were 17.9% and 18.0, but last year that number regressed to just 12.3%. What does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Well, it might indicate that some of those doubles from last season will become HR in 2008, so it is quite reasonable to expect to see Church approach or exceed 20 HR in 2008 if he can match his overall performance from last season.

Will his new home help this to become a reality? Last season, RFK had a Park Indices of just 68, or 32% below the average NL park, while his new home in New York, Shea Stadium, was far better at 93% (just 7% below average in the NL). The numbers show about the same split for left-handed power hitters with a 69 P.I. in Washington and 95 P.I. in NY.