The 25 Man Roster

Joel Sherman at his blog for the NY Post tries to predict the Mets 25 man roster:

A big question right away is whether the Mets will go with 11 or 12 pitchers. My hunch is 12 because they will have enough worries about the ability of their rotation to give depth that they will want to have a lot of bullpen arms available.

Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine and Oliver Perez have the inside track on the first four starter jobs. El Duque is always brittle, and Maine and Perez still have much to prove. I think, all things being equal, the Mets would install Chan Ho Park as the fifth starter, move Jorge Sosa to long relief and stash Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, Jason Vargas and Aaron Sele at Triple-A to await the inevitable need for change.

There are five bullpen spots sewn up: Billy Wagner, Pedro Feliciano, Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez and Scott Schoeneweis. Sosa makes it six. So who is seven? My gut says Joe Smith, a righty side-winder drafted last year, is going to make the Mets think hard about taking him to serve as a replacement for Chad Bradford. But his inexperience will convince the Mets to send him to Triple-A. They will take the shot that Ambiorix Burgos’ electric stuff can be tamed and use him as a 12th man initially in as many non-pressure situations as possible.

The main starting team is in place: Paul Lo Duca, Carlos Delgado, Jose Valentin, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Moises Alou, Carlos Beltran and Shawn Green. So are three backups: Ramon Castro, Endy Chavez and Damion Easley. Theoretically, Julio Franco would be assured a spot, also. But his lack of versatility really hurts the roster. It could be argued the Mets would be better served with Ben Johnson and David Newhan both making the roster, and not Franco. But GM Omar Minaya’s affinity for Franco will probably save him, at least to start the season.

Then the battle is between Newhan and Johnson. Both have obvious uses: Newhan is a jack-of-all-trades and Johnson is a righty bat to work in conjunction with Shawn Green in right field. With two slowed outfield corners, Alou and Green, my hunch is the Mets will see the value of having Chavez and Johnson both available as regular late-inning replacements and more than occasional starters.