Another MRI For El Duque

At Rotoworld they write about Orlando Hernandez going back to New York “yet again” for an MRI:

Orlando Hernandez was sent back to New York for an MRI after complaining of additional soreness in his right foot.

Those hoping for a quick return from El Duque might be out of luck. A major setback should have the Mets reconsidering their decision not to pursue Claudio Vargas.

When is enough going to be enough and the Mets just write him off as a casualty of Baseball war? Either you are coming back or not, but don’t give us fans false hope El Duque. Lord knows we don’t need that right now with the way the season has started.

Pelfrey Gets The Ball Today

Today’s Mets' game against the Cardinals will feature Mike Pelfrey as the starter, and he should probably be on the mound for at least 4 innings (IF he's doing well).

Cross your fingers folks, because if Pelfrey has another start like his last one, we could be looking at a desperation move with El Duque and his new delivery moving into the fifth starter slot. I just shutter to think of the aging Hernandez coming out with a new delivery at his age. This just can’t be ending well for him.

If we count the tally, Pelfrey has had two good starts followed by a nightmare. There can’t be much of a leash on him to perform and convince Willie to put him in the fifth spot over El Duque and I fear that one more bad start could push the decision over the ledge.

Can you tell that I would rather see Pelfrey in the opening day rotation?

El Duque Says He's Ready

John Delcos at Lo Hud writes about Orlando Hernandez and how he says he’s ready to pitch in a game:

Orlando Hernandez just completed a 60-pitch simulated game and said his next step will be an exhibition game.

“I think I’m ready for a game and can pitch three or four innings,” Hernandez said.

Well this is the defining moment for him and Pelfrey. A small piece of me almost wants him to flunk this test, just so that we can have Pelfrey pitch in the Majors for a full season. I mean what other way is he going to become confident in himself. Besides that, El Duque could go into the bullpen and stay fresh for the playoffs, where his game is elevated to baseball god status.

A Number Of Players On The Block With The Mets Looking For Backups

Joel Sherman at The New York Times writes about the Mets and their search for backups:

According to scouts from rival clubs, Smith is part of a list of players the Mets have told other teams they are willing to trade in a desire to fill two key backup roles: a righty hitter who can play both first base and right field, and a middle infielder who can handle shortstop well.

Aside from Smith, the Mets also would consider trading Orlando Hernandez. Orlando Hernandez , Scott Schoeneweis, Jorge Sosa and Anderson Hernandez. Ruben Gotay, who was out of options and, thus, could not be sent back to the minors without facing waivers, also was on that list before injuring his foot.

Retiring Mets' Numbers

Ken Davidoff at Ken Davidoff's Baseball Insider writes about the Mets and their lack of retiring worthy Met numbers:

The Mets have been conservative on this matter, limiting immortality to Gil Hodges' 14 (that's him on the left, for you youngsters), Casey Stengel's 37 and Tom Seaver's 41, as well as Jackie Robinson's 42. Willie Mays' 24 has largely been out of circulation, except for a bizarre cameo by Kelvin Torve in 1990 and Rickey Henderson's stints as a player and coach.

Hodges, Seaver and Stengel are all worthy of the honor, in my humble opinion. To those, I would add Keith Hernandez's 17 and Mays' 24 and, down the line, Mike Piazza's 31.

Hernandez was the heart and soul of the 1986 World Series champs. Throw in his contributions as a great broadcaster, and this is a no-brainer.

Piazza's 31 hasn't been distributed since he left Flushing after the 2005 season, and you've got to figure his time will come when he makes the Hall of Fame. An easy call for perhaps the Mets' all-time best position player.

How The Mets Rank With Johan

Over at The Metropolitans they discuss what the Mets rotation is going to reflect next year versus last year:

To put the point differently, we can compare what the Mets would look like with and without Santana, using Dan Szymborski's excellent ZiPS projections, which are available at baseballthinkfactory.org. According to Szymborski's numbers, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Hernandez, and Pelfrey project to pitch 796 innings this year, with a 4.10 earned run average. Swap Pelfrey out for Santana, and the rotation looks good for a 3.69 ERA in 880 innings.

Just to give you an indication of how tremendous that is, only 22 qualified starters in the entire big leagues posted a 3.69 ERA or better and the Mets project to have their entire starting staff average ERA there. As for team ERA for starters, the Padres, Indians, Cubs, Boston, Angels, Giants, and Toronto rounded out the top eight with a 4.11, 4.19, 4.19, 4.21, 4.22, 4.23, and 4.24 respectively.

The Mets were 11th with a 4.40 and it should be noted, Tom Glavine helped pull down that number as he was on the wrong side of 4.40. Of course there will be injuries, but Mike Pelfrey is one of the better 6th options in the league so I feel pretty comfortable saying the Mets might be odds on favorites to lead the league in starter ERA with a full year of Pedro and Johan in the fold.

The scary part is the Mets were already sixth in the bigs for starter k/9. Tampa was first with 7.71, Boston was second with 7.01, Baltimore was third with 6.95, the Cubs were fourth with 6.92, the Angels were fifth with 6.87, and the Mets were sixth with 6.85. Minus Tom Glavine's 4.00 k/9 and add in Johan and Pedro's innings at an aggregate of 9.00 k/9 or more and you have something that makes a grown man giggle.

Mets Pitching Is Stronger Than Ever

Marty Noble at Mets.com writes about the Mets starting rotation and how they have become a force to be reckoned with now that Santana is at the top:

Now, though the corral gate is open wide, waiting for a genuine stallion to enter and become its prize steed. Johan Santana may not replace Martinez as Randolph's choice for Opening Day, but he clearly displaces Martinez as the Mets' primary starter. So as long as the Mets satisfy Santana's contract desires by 5 o'clock on Friday, they will have a special pitcher on the mound and in their rotation come March 31 when they play the Marlins.

The pitching can be significantly better because a two-time Cy Young Award winner can be on the Mets' mound every fifth day. With a likely rotation of Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez and Mike Pelfrey or Orlando Hernandez, the Mets again are a legitimate contender in the National League East.

It's not that a 200-inning starter secures automatic entry into the postseason, but to reach 200-225 innings in a 30-34 start season, a pitcher must complete the sixth inning with some degree of regularity. And if he does, relievers' arms benefit. Now, for a princely sum no doubt, the Mets can have that.

If Maine and Perez continue developing, the Mets could have three starters close to 200 innings, and that would do wonder for the bullpen that conceivably could include El Duque.

Some Bullpen Suggestions

The number one place where the Mets need to make some major improvements is their Bullpen. In order to accomplish this feat and return it to it’s 2006 for there is really only a couple of moves that are going to be required, in my opinion anyway.

1. First of all the Mets have to figure out what they are going to do with Guillermo Mota and his 5.76 earned run average. After he spent the first 50 games on suspension, Mota showed us Met fans why baseball players go on the juice in the first place. He had the knack of making every in game situation considerably worse and cost the Mets some vital games as we can all tell. The Mets can try and move him in a trade and add some cash, or simply eat his contract and send him down to Triple-A to figure himself out.

2. The next move would have to be to sign a legitimate set up pitcher and one such a pitcher will be available.

Scott Linebrink was traded to the Brewers last season and will become a free agent at the end of the World Series. The Mets would become a considerably better team with his veteran presence in the pen. I would say they should sign him to a one year deal, worth $1.75MM. If there is another team willing to go beyond this bid, then the Mets should double up on the deal. They have no other option for a proven veteran set up man and must bring someone of Linebrink’s credentials in to help turn around the mess.

3. Duaner Sanchez has to do anything and everything to make sure that he will remain healthy for the 2008 season. After getting hit by the drunk driver in Miami in 2006, he has missed a year and a half to rotator cuff surgery and a hairline fracture. With Sanchez back in the pen, the Mets will have the option of pitching Sanchez or Linebrink in the eight inning role on any given night and the other, possibly pitching the seventh.

4. Joe Smith, the youngest member of the Mets bullpen, must do everything in his power during the off season to make sure that he doesn’t get dead arm syndrome in the middle of the season next year and let’s not forget to remind Willie Randolph not to over use the youngster and let him get his rest in between appearances.

5. Orlando Hernandez has shown that he doesn’t have the endurance to go the stretch in the starting pitcher’s slot. So the logical move would be to the pen, where he can act as a two headed long inning monster with Jorge Sosa and make the inning or two appearance if the Mets know that they don’t need to get those kinds of innings out of him and his Bugs Bunny pitch.

With all of the above mentioned moves made the bullpen would shape up to look as follows:

Joe Smith
Pedro Feliciano
Jorge Sosa
Orlando Hernandez
Scott Linebrink
Duaner Sanchez
Billy Wagner

This will surly be a far cry, in the good way, from the 2007 bullpen and if you were wondering about Scott Schoeneweis, I would have to try and include him in a deal for a starting pitcher from the Athletics or the Pirates (my personal preference).

El Duque To Get Surgery

At Rotoworld they write about Orlando Hernandez and his off season surgery:

Orlando Hernandez plans to undergo surgery to remove a bunion from his right foot later this week.

Hernandez was sidelined by the bunion for most of the last few weeks of the season.

El Duque Loses The Boot

Steve Adamek at North Jersey writes about Orlando Hernandez and his boot:

Discarding his protective boot, Orlando Hernandez threw off flat ground Monday and if he feels up to it today, plans to throw a bullpen session.

Manager Willie Randolph said he'd like to run El Duque out for a few regular-season innings before setting his postseason rotation, but wouldn't commit to it, saying, "You want to go into the end of the season having a better feel for everyone and where everybody fits in."

Player Update: Orlando Hernandez

Steve Popper at North Jersey writes about Orlando Hernandez and his foot:

Orlando Hernandez threw Sunday with the protective boot on his right foot, but said that if all goes well, he expects to discard the boot today. He will throw a bullpen session today or Tuesday without the boot.

"[Saturday] I threw and had a little inflammation, but [Sunday] it's normal," Hernandez said.

Player Update: Orlando Hernandez

At Rotoworld they write about Orlando Hernandez and his bunion:

Orlando Hernandez (bunion on foot) played catch from about 70 feet while wearing a protective boot Wednesday.

Hernandez will keep wearing the boot for another seven to 10 days.

Hernandez's Foot Still Bothering Him

John Delcos at Lo Hud writes about Orlando Hernandez and his now re-sore foot:

Do you remember what I wrote last night, that Hernandez’s problems was rust related? Well, he’s complaining about his foot again. I should have seen it coming. The Mets say he’ll make his next start, but that’s why they call them “probables’’ and not “definites.’’

One Of Those El Duque Games

From Dave At Mets Lifer.com (Ntework Member):

El Duque in his first game back with the Mets looked like he should have taken another week off. He had trouble with his control early and it seemed like everyone was able to get a hit off of him. I'm not going to even mention the final score because it's not even worth typing.

El Duque struggled his last time out so I was a little surprised to see him have back to back shaky starts. Some on talk radio and online are already saying this shows that El Duque needs to go to the bullpen if the Mets make the playoffs.

That's ridiculous. If you want to move him to the bullpen in the playoffs because his arm is durable enough to sustain it and he could fix some middle relief problems, that's one thing. But to move him there on account of this start is preposterous. El Duque has way too much playoff experience and fantastic playoff resume to send him to the bullpen for this.

I still feel that El Duque should be the Mets #1 starter in the playoffs. If he pitches in Game 1 there's no question he'd be available for game 4 and even game 6 if he was needed. From his time with the Yankees and White Sox, I am convinced El Duque dials it up a notch come playoff time.

I've been waiting 2 years to see him pitch a playoff game for the Mets. Just don't let him run around in the outfield between now and October.

The Good Outweighs The Bad

With the slight of hand and a spark of his charisma, General Manager Omar Minaya has changed the Mets almost seemingly over night. Now, although some of hiss trades haven’t looked pretty up front, his hart is definitely in the right place. Unlike the General Manager’s of the past, Omar has rarely ever gone for the easy fix and traded away the farm system for a big name. In fact, he has become sort of a savant for seeing talent where no one else, including the team with the player, does.

In the 2005 off season Omar Minaya went ahead and traded away Kris Benson to Baltimore for reliever Jorge Julio and minor league pitcher John Maine. Now let’s not forget that before the 2004 season the Mets traded Jason Bay to the Pirates to obtain Benson, but that didn’t stop Omar from shipping Kris and his wife for a washed up closer and a nobody pitcher.

Most of the fans cringed at the sight of seeing the Mets third starter depart for Julio, but as many didn’t know, there was an underlining purpose to this deal.

After rebuilding Julio’s image to an almost dependable set up man, he was spun half way through the 2006 season for Orlando Hernandez. The Diamondbacks were glad to make the deal, because El Duque was showing them that he had finally lived out his baseball career, or at least that’s what they thought anyway. El Duque came back to New York, this time to Queens, and showed why he was once a dominant starter.

A month later the second part of Omar’s deal with the Orioles came into the picture and started showing the Mets fans why Omar was so willing to give up Kris Benson. John Maine went on to have his best showing in the Majors and with injuries to Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez, wound up starting game one of the NLDS for the Mets.

So, when we sit back and look at the Brian Bannister deal and start to call for heads, just remember that Omar Minaya can’t bat 1.000 all of the time and that the good he has done for this team sorely outweighs the bad.

Success Mostly Due To Rotation

Marty Noble at Mets.com writes about the Mets success as of late and attributes most of it to the rotation:

The rotation has hardly been flawless since the last time a reliever won -- Billy Wagner was the winning pitcher on Aug. 21, when the Mets beat Padres closer Trevor Hoffman. But starters winning 10 straight decisions is uncommon. The Mets starters hadn't done it since an 18-game sequence in 2005.

In the chart below, notice the run support and the number of games in which the Mets allowed none or just one run in both streaks.

To see the chart use the link above.

Playoff And The Six Man Rotation

David Lennon at Newsday writes about the Mets playoff rotation and Willie Randolph's desire to use a six man rotation down the stretch:

Assuming Orlando Hernandez is healthy, he could be the Game 1 starter, followed by Tom Glavine and Martinez. That might land both Maine and Perez in the bullpen, with Maine as the fourth starter for the NLCS. At the moment, Randolph said the Mets will be using a "modified" six-man rotation, and the plan is for Mike Pelfrey to get at least one more start. But if a starter is going to the pen, it might have to happen before the playoffs. Said Randolph, "We'll try to get them adjusted - but it's a short period of time, so it might be impossible."

Issues Down The Stretch

Obviously wrapping up and securing the division title and home field through round 1 and 2 are the priorities here. But after that, here are some pending issues.

Jose Reyes NEEDS Rest:
Can we get A Hernandez to play some short? With each new view of a pop up flying off of his bat, it's become over-obvious that he is tired. The 48 hours off ending the Cinci series, followed by the scheduled team day off, will be a nice rest period for Reyes. But a little more may actually be in order.

Keeping Castillo Healthy:
Like Reyes, Castillo needs rest. With Gotay as a solid backup, it should not kill the appearance of the offensive lineup. Defense suffers, but Castillo lightening the workload on his knees and Gotay getting at bats is a good thing; gain a bit of pop and keep the valuable, aging, number two hitter fresher for the postseason. Its a symbiotic relationship that helps the team exponentially because in addition to the rest and health benefits of Castillo, Gotay keeps a nice bat on point.

Pedro:
* Building arm strength.
* Properly evaluating his status for the postseason and how he should be used. Bullpen? Starting? If in the rotation is he your number one, two, three, or four starter?

Sorting Out the Rotation for the Playoffs:
'Nuff said for now. See who has it going down the stretch. Clearly the toughest evaluation the team will need to make heading into round one. And of course this impacts......

The Bullpen:
Which starter or starters will go to the pen? The Mets win games the Duke starts at a high rate. He has big stage moxy. On the flip side however, he may be the most adaptable for the pen, an area where the Mets desperately need improvement. El Duque has pitched out of the pen in the postseason before (2005 WS Champion White Sox).

I've been vocal since last November about the temptation and logic behind Pedro being used in the pen. But its apparent that isn't a popular thought and highly unlikely due to ego. Some say his arm wouldn't be capable of getting loose on short notice. But being used an inning a night might be easier on the arm than the workload of 6 at a time. I'm no doctor though.

If he takes a step back in performance over the next and final 3 starts of the regular season, it would be a major risk to let him start a playoff game. So this final stretch will determine a lot.

The team will also need to decide how many bullpen guys they carry as their bench is extremely strong and one impacts the other. And where is Joe Smith? Is he coming back soon or what? What is his chance of being on the postseason roster?

Can Mota restore our confidence in him? Can Willie resist the temptation to burn out Sosa's arm? So far he has severley overused him and I fear for his effectiveness dropping off.

The Bench:
Conine needs some ABs. In addition to the chance Delgado's hip issue lingers, Conine is one of the few attractive righty bat options off the bench. It is dominated by sweet lefty options. But other than Milledge, who starts 50% of the time anyway, Conine is the main righty pinch-hitter late in a game. He needs to get AB's in September for his timing come October.

In blowout games or games that seem to not matter (should the Mets build a more than comfortable lead in the NL east), Chavez should be in there relieving the old and fragile, but important to the postseason, Mosies Alou. Let him come off the bench late in the games like Willie has been doing, or get him more frequent starts in place of Moises.

Regarding the rest of the bench, roster decisions will have to be made and the pitching roster will determine how many bench players are carried. As always it all begins with the pitching.

Catchers:
Getting Castro healthy is number one priority here. All the Mets can do is sit back and wait, hoping he heals. He's on the postseason roster even if he only heals by Septembet 30 and gets no MLB ABs before the first round. Will the Mets carry 3 catchers or will they prefer to carry an extra arm in the bullpen or give that spot to a non-catching bench player?

Lennon's Playoff Rotation

David Lennon at On The Mets Beat held a poll for fans to make thedecision for the playoff rotation. Here are his results:

...Based on our unscientific poll and your votes, here's the Mets' postseason rotation:

1. Tom Glavine (12 votes)
2. Pedro Martinez (10)
3. John Maine (9)
4. Orlando Hernandez (8)
5. Oliver Perez (5)

So it looks like Perez is the long man.

Player Update: Orlando Hernandez

At Rotoworld they give an update on Orlando Hernandez:

Orlando Hernandez says the sore foot, which caused him to miss his scheduled start this week, is improving.

Hernandez is expected to return to the rotation to start against the Braves or Phillies next week.