Pelfrey Gets The Ball Today

Today’s Mets' game against the Cardinals will feature Mike Pelfrey as the starter, and he should probably be on the mound for at least 4 innings (IF he's doing well).

Cross your fingers folks, because if Pelfrey has another start like his last one, we could be looking at a desperation move with El Duque and his new delivery moving into the fifth starter slot. I just shutter to think of the aging Hernandez coming out with a new delivery at his age. This just can’t be ending well for him.

If we count the tally, Pelfrey has had two good starts followed by a nightmare. There can’t be much of a leash on him to perform and convince Willie to put him in the fifth spot over El Duque and I fear that one more bad start could push the decision over the ledge.

Can you tell that I would rather see Pelfrey in the opening day rotation?

El Duque Says He's Ready

John Delcos at Lo Hud writes about Orlando Hernandez and how he says he’s ready to pitch in a game:

Orlando Hernandez just completed a 60-pitch simulated game and said his next step will be an exhibition game.

“I think I’m ready for a game and can pitch three or four innings,” Hernandez said.

Well this is the defining moment for him and Pelfrey. A small piece of me almost wants him to flunk this test, just so that we can have Pelfrey pitch in the Majors for a full season. I mean what other way is he going to become confident in himself. Besides that, El Duque could go into the bullpen and stay fresh for the playoffs, where his game is elevated to baseball god status.

Shoe And Sosa On The Block

Adam at the Daily News writes about Scott Schoenweis and Jorge Sosa being shopped by Omar Minaya:

Mets GM Omar Minaya has let teams know that relievers Scott Schoeneweis and Jorge Sosa can be obtained in trades, according to sources briefed on the players' availability. Schoeneweis has two years and $7.2 million left on his original three-year deal. Sosa will earn $2 million in his final year before free agency.

The Mets like Rule 5 pick Steven Register, who has a deceptive fastball, but will have to offer him back to the Rockies if there isn't room in the bullpen at Shea. Trading Sosa would open the long-relief role and help get Mike Pelfrey onto the staff in some capacity.

A Re-Focused Pelfrey

Ben Shipigel at The New York Times writes about Mike Pelfrey and how he has re-focused himself this year:

“I feel that this is going to be my year,” said Pelfrey, who, despite his two relief appearances last year, is not being considered for a bullpen spot. “If it isn’t, then I’ll understand. But I’m going to be given an opportunity to perform, and that’s all you can ask for. I know that I’m good enough to make this team. If they think so, too, I’m sure they’ll find some way to use me.”

Pelfrey recalls how clear his head felt after he returned home in October to Wichita, Kan. There, he spent a month reflecting on what he called “a lost year.” It included seven consecutive losses to begin the season, four round trips between the majors and Class AAA New Orleans, and one dominant six-inning outing Sept. 1 in Atlanta.

In that game, he allowed one hit, induced ground balls at will and prompted Minaya last week to gush: “That game in Atlanta last year, that’s Mike Pelfrey. That Mike Pelfrey is there. It’s going to come out.”

On the mound, he has vowed not to revisit the tentative pitching style that overshadowed his first month with the Mets. Rather than throw in the mid- to high 90s, Pelfrey said he aimed the ball, diminishing his velocity, and concentrated too much on his secondary pitches. When he rejoined the team in early July, he had better movement on his heavy sinking fastball. Over the remainder of the season, he improved his ground ball percentage by nearly 10 percent (to 67.7 percent from 58.8) and induced 2.09 grounders for every fly ball, compared with 1.43 earlier, according to Stats LLC.

How The Mets Rank With Johan

Over at The Metropolitans they discuss what the Mets rotation is going to reflect next year versus last year:

To put the point differently, we can compare what the Mets would look like with and without Santana, using Dan Szymborski's excellent ZiPS projections, which are available at baseballthinkfactory.org. According to Szymborski's numbers, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Hernandez, and Pelfrey project to pitch 796 innings this year, with a 4.10 earned run average. Swap Pelfrey out for Santana, and the rotation looks good for a 3.69 ERA in 880 innings.

Just to give you an indication of how tremendous that is, only 22 qualified starters in the entire big leagues posted a 3.69 ERA or better and the Mets project to have their entire starting staff average ERA there. As for team ERA for starters, the Padres, Indians, Cubs, Boston, Angels, Giants, and Toronto rounded out the top eight with a 4.11, 4.19, 4.19, 4.21, 4.22, 4.23, and 4.24 respectively.

The Mets were 11th with a 4.40 and it should be noted, Tom Glavine helped pull down that number as he was on the wrong side of 4.40. Of course there will be injuries, but Mike Pelfrey is one of the better 6th options in the league so I feel pretty comfortable saying the Mets might be odds on favorites to lead the league in starter ERA with a full year of Pedro and Johan in the fold.

The scary part is the Mets were already sixth in the bigs for starter k/9. Tampa was first with 7.71, Boston was second with 7.01, Baltimore was third with 6.95, the Cubs were fourth with 6.92, the Angels were fifth with 6.87, and the Mets were sixth with 6.85. Minus Tom Glavine's 4.00 k/9 and add in Johan and Pedro's innings at an aggregate of 9.00 k/9 or more and you have something that makes a grown man giggle.

Mets Pitching Is Stronger Than Ever

Marty Noble at Mets.com writes about the Mets starting rotation and how they have become a force to be reckoned with now that Santana is at the top:

Now, though the corral gate is open wide, waiting for a genuine stallion to enter and become its prize steed. Johan Santana may not replace Martinez as Randolph's choice for Opening Day, but he clearly displaces Martinez as the Mets' primary starter. So as long as the Mets satisfy Santana's contract desires by 5 o'clock on Friday, they will have a special pitcher on the mound and in their rotation come March 31 when they play the Marlins.

The pitching can be significantly better because a two-time Cy Young Award winner can be on the Mets' mound every fifth day. With a likely rotation of Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez and Mike Pelfrey or Orlando Hernandez, the Mets again are a legitimate contender in the National League East.

It's not that a 200-inning starter secures automatic entry into the postseason, but to reach 200-225 innings in a 30-34 start season, a pitcher must complete the sixth inning with some degree of regularity. And if he does, relievers' arms benefit. Now, for a princely sum no doubt, the Mets can have that.

If Maine and Perez continue developing, the Mets could have three starters close to 200 innings, and that would do wonder for the bullpen that conceivably could include El Duque.

A Take On The Latest Santana Rumor

Eddie D'Anna at Ya Gotta Believe writes about the latest Johan Santana rumor and what he would do if He was Omar Minaya:

That's a lot of young talent, but if I'm GM Omar Minaya, I pull the trigger on that -- as long as the best pitcher on the planet signs an extension.

You land Johan the Man, hold onto your prized pitching prospect Mike Pelfrey and your top right-handed setup man Aaron Heilman.

The Mets have two first-round picks in this year's draft and one supplemental pick. They can replenish the farm system come summer.

Pelfrey Could Be The Set Up Man If Heilman Gets Traded

Ted Berg at SNY hits on a topic that I've hit on before (Pelfrey Could Be The Next Great Closer) with the Mike Pelfrey should move to the Pen:

I've long argued that hard-throwing youngster Mike Pelfrey should be moved into a relief role, and there's plenty of evidence to back me up. Not only does Pelfrey's limited arsenal profile better for a bullpen candidate, but fellow prospects like Bobby Jenks, Adam Wainwright and the stellar Jonathan Papelbon have all had big-league success in relief after working principally as starters in the Minors. I'm not saying Pelfrey will mimic those successes, I'm just saying it can't hurt to try.

It's way too soon to write off Pelfrey as a starter, even if he fared poorly in that role in 2007. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine both struggled when they entered the Majors, but their teams could afford to stick with them during rebuilding phases. Since the Mets intend to compete in 2008, they don't have that luxury, and I don't know many Mets fans who'd be thrilled to have Pelfrey in the back of the rotation come Opening Day. A move to the bullpen will allow Pelfrey time to develop, and if the Mets still feel he can be the ace they once predicted him to become, they can transition him into the rotation when it becomes clear he has nothing more to prove in the bullpen.

Nationals Like Pelfrey

At Rotoworld they write about the Nationals interest In Mike Pelfrey and what they have to work with:

MLB.com reports that the Nationals are shopping Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for starting pitching.

Kearns is more expendable after Monday's trade for Elijah Dukes gave the Nationals four outfielders for three spots. Washington is said to be interested in Mike Pelfrey of the Mets and Kevin Slowey of the Twins.

Nats Like Gomez And Pelfrey

Over at Rotoworld they write about the Nationals asking the Mets about Carlos Gomez and Mike Pelfrey:

The Nationals have been asking the Mets about Mike Pelfrey and Carlos Gomez in trade talks.

All they really have to offer the Mets is Chad Cordero and/or Jon Rauch. We doubt the Mets would give up both Pelfrey and Gomez for Cordero and they probably wouldn't part with either for Rauch. A two-for-two deal would be interesting, but it qualifies as highly unlikely.

My Two Cents On Olney's Plan For The Mets

Recently there have been a lot of rumors regarding the fate of Jose Reyes and Buster Olney at ESPN they say that the Mets should include him in a package deal to obtain Johan Santana from the Twins.

This is an absolute ridiculous notion to even consider thinking about. This is the kind of trade that is a tear down of the core of the Mets future. Only because of his terrible last six weeks of the season is anyone even breathing in the direction of this being a, sort of, good deal to be made.

The Mets would be losing such a commodity that there would be numerous ramifications to be felt for seasons to come. First of all they would lose their lead off hitter and the mets don’t have anyone that could even come close to replacing Reyes. Second of all they would lose that threat on the base paths that has won them numerous games over the course of the season and on top of all that the y would be losing a potential Golden Glove player and two time All-Star in the process.

Now I fully understand that Johan Santana is without a doubt the best lefty in this day in age and is one of the best starters in the game, however that doesn’t mean that the Mets should trade away Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey and Jose Reyes to obtain him for what would seem like only a year if the Mets fail to resign him.

That is a blow to the Mets team and a major blow to their farm system that just isn’t worth the price.

Pelfrey Maturing

Michael Phillips at Mets.com writes about Mike Pelfrey and what Willie Randolph had to say about his maturity:

"He's maturing, and he's still finding his way, but we need his stuff," the manager said. "He might give up a few hits here and there, but he also broke some bats. It was a good outing for him. It's nice to see him progress."

Pelfrey recorded four strikeouts, three of them against leadoff hitter Nook Logan. He gave up hits, but was able to make pitches at key times, stranding five runners while allowing just three to score.

Success Mostly Due To Rotation

Marty Noble at Mets.com writes about the Mets success as of late and attributes most of it to the rotation:

The rotation has hardly been flawless since the last time a reliever won -- Billy Wagner was the winning pitcher on Aug. 21, when the Mets beat Padres closer Trevor Hoffman. But starters winning 10 straight decisions is uncommon. The Mets starters hadn't done it since an 18-game sequence in 2005.

In the chart below, notice the run support and the number of games in which the Mets allowed none or just one run in both streaks.

To see the chart use the link above.

Playoff And The Six Man Rotation

David Lennon at Newsday writes about the Mets playoff rotation and Willie Randolph's desire to use a six man rotation down the stretch:

Assuming Orlando Hernandez is healthy, he could be the Game 1 starter, followed by Tom Glavine and Martinez. That might land both Maine and Perez in the bullpen, with Maine as the fourth starter for the NLCS. At the moment, Randolph said the Mets will be using a "modified" six-man rotation, and the plan is for Mike Pelfrey to get at least one more start. But if a starter is going to the pen, it might have to happen before the playoffs. Said Randolph, "We'll try to get them adjusted - but it's a short period of time, so it might be impossible."

Pelfrey Probable To Get The Call For Saturday

So right after I posted the Philip Humber should start post, Rotoworld came out with this:

Mets are planning on recalling RHP Mike Pelfrey to start Saturday's game against Atlanta.

Pelfrey, who is 0-7 with a 5.92 ERA with the Mets this season, is only keeping the spot in the rotation warm for Pedro Martinez. Martinez will return to the major league rotation on Sept 8 or 9.

Pelfrey Or Humber?

D.B. Burke at North Jersey weighs the chances of both Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber making the start against the Braves:

It'll be either Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber on the mound Saturday night at Turner Field, a prospect that can't have the Braves all that worried.

The Mets will make up their minds on which minor leaguer -- the one with an 0-7 record and a 5.92 ERA in the majors this season or the one who will be making just his third major-league appearance -- will make that start.

Pelfrey Could Be The Next Great Closer

Since 2005 when Mike Pelfrey was chosen in the first round (9th overall), Met fans have looked towards him as the future Mets ace for years to come. In his last year at college he was a second team All-American, Missouri Valley Conference Pitcher of the Year and Missouri Valley Conference All-Star. In his first year in the Mets Minor Leagues he was awarded the New York Mets Minor League Player of the Year.

All of these honors and awards should have garnered some results in the Majors, but they haven’t. In 2006, when Pelfrey was called up due to constant injuries to the Mets starting pitching, he posted a 2-1 record to go along with a 5.48 ERA in 4 starts. These weren’t bad for a pitcher who didn’t even have a full season of Minor League ball under his belt, but when he pitched lights out in Pre-Season, before the 2007 season, and earned a spot in the Mets rotation, as the fifth starter, he didn’t fair too well. So far, this season, Pelfrey has posted a 0-7 record to go along with a 5.92 ERA in 9 starts.

The main problem I, I think with Mike Pelfrey, is that he relies on his fast ball too much. He does have a devastating slider and if he decides to use it effectively he could be the next Brandon Webb, but for some unknown reason, he feels that his good old number one is his bread and butter. Now, a lot of pitchers do make a living off of their fast balls. The only problem is that they aren’t starters. Mainly they’re set up men and closers.

For this reason, I believe that Pelfrey could be one of the most dominant set up men and once Billy Wagner’s contract runs its course, a dominant closer. For this to happen, Wagner is going to have to take Pelfrey under his wing and show him the ropes of being a closer and dealing with the high pressure situations.

If memory serves me right, Billy Wagner, who was selected in the first round of the draft (12th overall) , was a full time starter (3-2 3.28 ERA) until he made his way into the Majors and was immediately converted into a set up man/closer where he converted 9 of his 13 save opportunities. This kind of experience would be of enormous value to a pitcher of Pelfrey’s credentials.

Imagine it if you will, a right handed pitcher who can throw in the mid to high 90’s, setting up for a left handed closer who can also throw in the mid to high 90’s. That would be one of the most dominant duos in baseball for relievers and, just might, solve the on going problem in the Mets bullpen.

Pelfrey A Bullpen Arm?

John Delcos at Lo Hud writes about Mike Pelfre and asks if he could be of good use out of the bullpen:

Omar Minaya said not to count on a waiver deal. Help has to come from within, which again begs the question: Why not give Mike Pelfrey a shot in the bullpen?

Am I overreacting? I really don’t think so.

Contemplating Trading Milledge

A lot of the media and fans have been hard on Milledge through his stints with the Mets over the past two years (myself included), but he has really come through in the clutch for them this season. I almost admire him for his perseverance through situations that were his fault and some that weren’t. He is a fantastic player and another catalyst for this team.

With all that said, if a trade possibility for a player of Carl Crawford’s caliber were to arise (going around the blogging community) for Milledge and another prospect (Pitcher), I wouldn’t mind one bit if the Mets were to jump all over this like it were a wounded animal in the wild.

Crawford has drawn comparison to Reyes on many occasions and had almost identical numbers to him last season (.305 BA, 58 SB; 18 HR). Having a player of Crawford’s ability hitting second behind Reyes would be enough to unnerve any pitcher on the mound.

So if I were Omar and this rumor were true, I would hand Milledge and a Pelfrey or Humber over to Tampa on a silver platter. Endo of story.

Mets And Pelfrey Playing Chutes And Ladders

Mike Pelfrey will most likely be called up for the double header on Saturday. With how many times he’s been called up and sent to the minors, it almost feels like there is a secret game of "Chutes And Ladders" going on between the Mets and Pelfrey.

The Mets see good signs out of Pelfrey and ladder him on up to the Majors. When Pelfrey shows that he’s not ready for the Majors yet, the Mets Chute him back down to Triple-A. I just feel like this game won’t be over until the season ends and I can’t really blame it on the Mets.

Pelfrey has shown that he can be a Brandon Webb type of pitcher with his sinker stuff, but when he needs to come through at the Major League Level, somewhere in his mind, he feels as though he could be a straight fast ball pitcher and gets crushed.

The sooner that Pelfrey gets this notion of fast balls out of his head and just does as Rick Peterson says, the sooner the Mets have a young dominant Ace to head their staff into the new park.

Until that day comes though, Pelfrey will continue to pay homage to Milton Bradley.