Perez Comes Up Big

John Delcos at the Lo Hud Mets Blog writes about Oliver Perez and his biggest game of the season:

“Ollie got into a nice rhythm,” Randolph said. “I thought he could have gone further. When he’s locked into his rhythm, he is pretty tough to beat. When he’s feeling his confidence, he’s pretty good.”

“He was aggressive and didn’t give in,” Schneider said. “The turning point in the game was when Molina lead off that inning with a double and he shut them down. He got some big outs.”

Perez was the “Good Ollie.”

That's about the only thing you can say about his game, he was the good Oliver. I seriously thought the Mets were going to get beaten last night. I mean who could have blamed me. The way the season has been going and the way Perez has pitched the last three games before last night just screamed a loss. But I was pleasantly surprised.

Perz To Start Home Opener

Marty Noble at Mets.com writes about Oliver Perez and how he will be starting the final Opening Day at Shea Tuesday:

The Mets seemingly would have been better off had their original plan held and Pedro Martinez was to oppose the Phillies. Perez lost two decisions, won none and produced a 5.40 ERA in three starts against Philadelphia last season. Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins have combined for six home runs in merely 36 combined career at-bats against him. Perez has beaten the Phillies once in eight career starts.

Let’s all hope that Perez can rebound from last year. All that goes through my mind when I think of Perez facing the Phillies is that tower of a shot from Ryan Howard in 2006 that ended Perez’s day. Cross your fingers.

No Hard Feelings

Bart Hubbach at The New York Post writes about the after effects of the Oliver Perez arbitration case:

"I know it's a business," said Perez, who was excused to attend the four-hour hearing with his agent, Scott Boras. "That stuff is outside the game. Both sides have a job to do. There are no hard feelings."

GM Omar Minaya agreed, saying he doesn't consider the drastic step of an actual hearing will keep the Mets from re-signing the 26-year-old starter when he likely heads to free agency next winter.

"We'll see what happens, but I don't think it will impact his desire to stay with us," said Minaya, who sought out Perez to shake his hand and offer congratulations yesterday in the clubhouse.

Perez Wins Arbitration Hearing

Jon Heyman at SI.com writes about the arbitration hearing of Oliver Perez:

Mets starting pitcher Oliver Perez has won his arbitration hearing and will earn $6.5 million in 2008, SI.com has learned.

The Mets submitted a figure of $4.725 million for the 26-year-old lefthander. Perez earned $2.325 in 2007, going 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA.

The Future Of Oliver Perez

Mike Steffanos at Mike's Mets takes an in depth look at what may become a make or break season for Oliver Perez:

If Oliver Perez builds on his success from last year with more consistency, I don't believe that $15 million per year is out of line for what Boras might ask for a 27-year-old lefty with top of the rotation stuff, and he'll most likely be looking for a 5 year deal. For a team looking for a guy who is capable of leading their staff, that might not seem a lot of money. If Perez is the third or fourth starter for the Mets, and they're already paying the big bucks to Santana and Pedro, you wonder if that might be a little rich for the Mets.

Although Boras' clients usually go where the money takes them, we've heard rumors that Perez might prefer to pitch somewhere the fans come to April games wearing t-shirts rather than parkas. Also, although he seems to enjoy the spotlight, New York isn't always a bundle of laughs for an athlete. Now, I don't know what is in Perez' head, but I certainly won't assume he wants to return just because I want him back.

I know he faded a bit down the stretch, but I see Maine as a potential #2 starter with experience. If John has a great season and establishes himself as the clear #3 guy behind Santana and Pedro, that probably makes OP expendable, particularly if the Mets find Boras' demands excessive.

Perez Arbitration Update

John Delcos at The Courier News gives an update on the Oliver Perz arbitration situation:

Oliver Perez wasn't in a talkative mood Wednesday with the exception of asking a clubhouse attendant for directions to St. Petersburg. The Mets and the agent for their 26-year-old 15-game winner talked during the day and could again today before Perez's scheduled arbitration hearing.

General manager Omar Minaya said it's possible, but not likely, the team could reach a settlement with agent Scott Boras.

"We'd rather not go there," Minaya said of the arbitration hearing, something the Mets haven't had since 1992 when they lost to David Cone. "But, it looks like we will."

Outside of Sabathia, Perez could be 2009's free-agent prize, so he'll be asking for a lot more than $6.5 million.

Minaya wants to avoid arbitration because in its base form the team is tearing down the player. Perez's reputation is losing focus on the mound and Minaya's concern is if he loses he might let it impact his pitching.

Mets And Boras Talking

John Delcos at Lohud writes about the Mets and Oliver Perez's agent, Scott Boras, talking about avoiding Arbitration:

The Mets keep talking with agent Scott Boras in hope of avoiding an arbitration hearing with Oliver Perez. They are talking about both a one-year and multi-year deal.

“We’ve talking,” assistant GM John Ricco said. “All along we’ve said we want to avoid arbitration.”

That might be the case, but Ricco isn’t optimistic about a long-term deal.

“Scott’s M.O.is to not take free agent years off the table,” Ricco said. “He wants to take them to free agency and get a big contract.”

Mets And Perez Headed For Hearing

David Lennon at On The Mets Beat writes about the Mets and Oliver Perez headed for the first Arbitration hearing in 16 years:

Oliver Perez and the Mets are scheduled for an arbitration hearing on Feb. 21 in St. Petersburg. Given that the two sides have yet to reach an agreement, and Perez wants to be a free agent at the of this year, it looks like the Mets will have their first hearing in 16 years.

Perez has asked for $6.5 million and the Mets have offered $4.725 million.

Perez Looking Ahead

At SI.com they write about Oliver Perez and how he isn't going to be dwelling on the past:

The past has had mixed results for Perez, who figures to be the team's fourth starter this season after going 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA and 174 strikeouts last season.

"Right now, I'm just trying to learn about last year,'' Perez said Tuesday after a workout at the Mets' spring training complex. "That was a really good year for me. I have to take the routine I was making, and I have to learn about the bad things I was doing so I don't make too many mistakes this year.''

Perez Doesn't Want A Long Term Deal Yet

Adam Rubin at The New York Daily News writes about Oliver Perez and how he is not ready to sign a long term deal yet:

GM Omar Minaya said Perez's agent, Scott Boras, is not interested in negotiating a contract that covers beyond the 2008 season, meaning Perez should be a free agent next winter. Perez has asked for $6.5 million, with the club countering at $4.725 million.

How The Mets Rank With Johan

Over at The Metropolitans they discuss what the Mets rotation is going to reflect next year versus last year:

To put the point differently, we can compare what the Mets would look like with and without Santana, using Dan Szymborski's excellent ZiPS projections, which are available at baseballthinkfactory.org. According to Szymborski's numbers, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Hernandez, and Pelfrey project to pitch 796 innings this year, with a 4.10 earned run average. Swap Pelfrey out for Santana, and the rotation looks good for a 3.69 ERA in 880 innings.

Just to give you an indication of how tremendous that is, only 22 qualified starters in the entire big leagues posted a 3.69 ERA or better and the Mets project to have their entire starting staff average ERA there. As for team ERA for starters, the Padres, Indians, Cubs, Boston, Angels, Giants, and Toronto rounded out the top eight with a 4.11, 4.19, 4.19, 4.21, 4.22, 4.23, and 4.24 respectively.

The Mets were 11th with a 4.40 and it should be noted, Tom Glavine helped pull down that number as he was on the wrong side of 4.40. Of course there will be injuries, but Mike Pelfrey is one of the better 6th options in the league so I feel pretty comfortable saying the Mets might be odds on favorites to lead the league in starter ERA with a full year of Pedro and Johan in the fold.

The scary part is the Mets were already sixth in the bigs for starter k/9. Tampa was first with 7.71, Boston was second with 7.01, Baltimore was third with 6.95, the Cubs were fourth with 6.92, the Angels were fifth with 6.87, and the Mets were sixth with 6.85. Minus Tom Glavine's 4.00 k/9 and add in Johan and Pedro's innings at an aggregate of 9.00 k/9 or more and you have something that makes a grown man giggle.

Mets Pitching Is Stronger Than Ever

Marty Noble at Mets.com writes about the Mets starting rotation and how they have become a force to be reckoned with now that Santana is at the top:

Now, though the corral gate is open wide, waiting for a genuine stallion to enter and become its prize steed. Johan Santana may not replace Martinez as Randolph's choice for Opening Day, but he clearly displaces Martinez as the Mets' primary starter. So as long as the Mets satisfy Santana's contract desires by 5 o'clock on Friday, they will have a special pitcher on the mound and in their rotation come March 31 when they play the Marlins.

The pitching can be significantly better because a two-time Cy Young Award winner can be on the Mets' mound every fifth day. With a likely rotation of Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez and Mike Pelfrey or Orlando Hernandez, the Mets again are a legitimate contender in the National League East.

It's not that a 200-inning starter secures automatic entry into the postseason, but to reach 200-225 innings in a 30-34 start season, a pitcher must complete the sixth inning with some degree of regularity. And if he does, relievers' arms benefit. Now, for a princely sum no doubt, the Mets can have that.

If Maine and Perez continue developing, the Mets could have three starters close to 200 innings, and that would do wonder for the bullpen that conceivably could include El Duque.

Mets Relying On Maine And Perez More Than Ever

Over at the Herald Tribune, they write about the Mets and their reliance on John Maine and Oliver Perez:

I think sometimes we lose sight of what those guys did," the GM said. "Wait a minute, let's reflect, we do have some young guys who have done it, who are proven. Sometimes you get caught up — we need pitching. Well, we do have pitching."

If they can't fortify the rotation with a new arm, the Mets will count even more on Maine and Perez in 2008.

"If we don't get another pitcher they're going to really need to step up," Randolph said. "These guys came off nice years. ... They're going to get better, hopefully."

Memo To Omar: Don't Put Perez in Santana Deal!

Dear Omar:

How are you doing, my friend? Remember me? I'm that crazy blogger who has been singing your praises for the past 2 years via this blog, and since the late 90's knew that you were the brains behind Steve Philips regime. I'm also the one who walked right past Spike Lee, in Spring Training 2 seasons ago, to get YOUR autograph, not Spike's (much to his, and your, surprise!) Therefore, I have no problem with asking you the following question, regarding the possible inclusion of Oliver Perez in a potential deal for Johan Santana: ARE YOU CRAZY??!!

I am never going to say that Oliver Perez is in a class with Santana; not yet, probably not ever. However, last season, O-Perez won 15 games and Santana won 15 games; their ERA's were about 0.20 apart; Santana struck out 235 while giving up 33 homers in 219 innings, and Perez struck out 174 while giving up 22 homers in 177 innings; Santana will make approximately $20 million (or more this season), Perez will probably make between $4 and $6 mil; Santana is 29, Perez is 26; finally, Perez and Santana will both be free agents after this season, but Santana will sign a huge deal before hitting the market if he is traded, in the $150 million range, while, hopefully, you will sign Perez to a deal for 4 years, at around $45 million, or a savings of approximately $9 million (at least) per season.

If this was a Perez for Santana deal, straight up, or with one prospect (not named Martinez), this would be a good deal, as Santana is still, after a "down" season by his standards, the best pitcher in the game. However, Omar, you should be very proud of the fact that Mr. Perez continues to improve under your watch, and came via a brilliant trade that you engineered. He may be a bit more "Hyde" than "Jeckyl" at times, but he's still a great #2 man in our rotation and at his age, possesses huge upside. A trade that included Perez, Gomez, Pelfrey and Heilman would be WAY too much for the rights to Santana, and I'd rather see that money pumped into player development, a stop-gap starter like a Carlos Silva (another Twin who would be a good #4/5 starter for about $10 mil per season) and some additional bullpen help! If we can get Santana for prospects and Heilman, great; PLEASE don't thin out our already thin rotation in a starter for starter deal.

There- I've said my peace...and just in case you have traded for Santana by the time I have posted this, in the words of SNL great Gilda Radner, in her "Emily Latella" guise: NEVER MIND!

Your Loyal Fan,

Let's Go Mets,

David Rubin

Perez Has Odds On His Side

At Rotoworld they write about Oliver Perez, John Maine and the last rotation spot in the playoffs:

Oliver Perez surrendered five runs -- two earned -- in just 4 2/3 innings against the Phillies on Sunday but didn't factor into the decision.

The Mets committed five errors in this one, so most of the blame won't fall on Perez's shoulders. However, it was another subpar outing with six hits and six walks. If the Mets can hold off the Phillies down the stretch they'll likely keep Perez in their post-season rotation, but it's no guarantee. The club is going to use Pedro Martinez unless he's awful down the stretch, and Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernanez, assuming good health, are also locks. That leaves one spot for Perez or John Maine, both of whom have earned the opportunity. Since Maine has struggled some of late, consider Perez the slight favorite.

The Met Magician

I know that a lot of fans, including myself, were calling for blood when Omar Minaya went ahead and traded Xavier Nady last year to obtain Roberto Hernandez and some unknown pitcher who once dominated the National League Central, but now at the point that the Mets are at, I couldn’t see this trade in any other light than highway robbery gone our way. Look at it this way. We got a, most of the time, dominant pitcher and a compensation first round draft pick from the Indians ( Roberto Hernandez was a Type-A free agent) for a, just over, average outfielder/first baseman. I wouldn’t have had it any other way.

Over the course of the season, Oliver Perez has become the force that has guided the Mets past their National League East rivals, the Atlanta Braves, and for some reason they can’t seem to figure him out.

In five starts against the Tomahawk Chopping Warriors, Perez is an impressive four and one, with a 3.07 earned run average, allowed five home runs, thirty two strikeouts, only two bases on balls and all in 32.2 innings pitched. This is by far an impressive line of numbers for any mets pitcher against the team that has seemed to dominate them over the past fifteen plus years.

Perez has become, over the course of the season, the Mets version of Chipper Jones. For some unknown reason, when Perez hits the mound, he becomes the ace he once was in Pittsburgh and becomes un-hittable.

Whether it’s his erratic style that catches the tribe off guard or that a light switch just turns on in his head when he takes the mound against them, it doesn’t matter because all we hope for is a dominant performance and a look into what Oliver Perez might become once his full potential is harnessed.

Success Mostly Due To Rotation

Marty Noble at Mets.com writes about the Mets success as of late and attributes most of it to the rotation:

The rotation has hardly been flawless since the last time a reliever won -- Billy Wagner was the winning pitcher on Aug. 21, when the Mets beat Padres closer Trevor Hoffman. But starters winning 10 straight decisions is uncommon. The Mets starters hadn't done it since an 18-game sequence in 2005.

In the chart below, notice the run support and the number of games in which the Mets allowed none or just one run in both streaks.

To see the chart use the link above.

Playoff And The Six Man Rotation

David Lennon at Newsday writes about the Mets playoff rotation and Willie Randolph's desire to use a six man rotation down the stretch:

Assuming Orlando Hernandez is healthy, he could be the Game 1 starter, followed by Tom Glavine and Martinez. That might land both Maine and Perez in the bullpen, with Maine as the fourth starter for the NLCS. At the moment, Randolph said the Mets will be using a "modified" six-man rotation, and the plan is for Mike Pelfrey to get at least one more start. But if a starter is going to the pen, it might have to happen before the playoffs. Said Randolph, "We'll try to get them adjusted - but it's a short period of time, so it might be impossible."

Some October Questions

With the magic number dwindling by the game, the Mets playoff chances get better and better. They’re a mere fifteen games away from clinching the National League East title for a second straight year and unlike last year will finally might have the entire pitching staff at full strength.

So the only thing for us to do is to take a look at some possible questions that the Mets are going to be faced with as the playoffs loom.

Is Mota playing come October?

The first problem is an enormous one and it all falls on Willie Randolph’s shoulders. Is Guillermo Mota going to be allowed to be on the post season roster? There are an astronomical number of reasons why he shouldn’t and the number on reason is his 5.82 ERA. This should be reason enough for Mota to be sent home packing come October, but we all know how Willie thinks that he will turn his game around come playoff time. The only problem with this train of thought would be, and we all know it’s going to happen, that Mota is going to be brought into a big situation and give up the game.

Pedro, the Number One Starter?

With his first two starts since coming off of rotator cuff surgery, Pedro Martinez is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Should this warrant him as the top dog in the Mets playoff rotation? I firmly believe so. With Pedro atop of the Mets rotation, they look more intimidating than the Peavey, Young combination in the National League.

Is Ramon Castro going to be ready for October ball?

Castro has just started his rehab assignment for Brooklyn and still isn’t ready to come back to the big club yet. Knowing that Paul Lo Duca is going to make most, if not all, of the playoff starts, could Willie bring Castro up before the post season begins? Well he should because I don’t think I could see Lo Duca going down and the remainder of the games played out by Di Felice, can you?

Who’s on first?

Carlos Delgado is apparently out for the rest of the season and that brings a plethora of questions to light. Could Shawn Green cover first in the post season? If not how about Conine? These questions are ones that I don’t want to ask, so Delgado had better suck up the pain come October and make a repeat of his effort last year, when he destroyed LA and the Cardinals hitting .354 with 4 home runs. That kind of production would be sorely missed if he can’t make it back.

Who’s the fourth starter?

Maine and Perez both came up big for the Mets last October, but that was when Pedro and El Duque were side lined, so they won’t be asked to make the same kind of repeat this year. Paul LoDuca already said that he believes that Oliver Perez wouldn’t be a good option out of the pen because of his erratic style. Good enough for me, so my fifth starter would have to be Oliver Perez or even a two headed beast of Perez and Maine. How about a little three or four inning show from each in the same game?

Lennon's Playoff Rotation

David Lennon at On The Mets Beat held a poll for fans to make thedecision for the playoff rotation. Here are his results:

...Based on our unscientific poll and your votes, here's the Mets' postseason rotation:

1. Tom Glavine (12 votes)
2. Pedro Martinez (10)
3. John Maine (9)
4. Orlando Hernandez (8)
5. Oliver Perez (5)

So it looks like Perez is the long man.